Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression
By Robert Prechter Jr.
John Wiley & Sons, 2002 - 320 pages

Robert Prechter Jr. is known for his Elliot Wave Principles newsletter and his preceding book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave, which was published, I believe, originally in 1996.  

I should note that I haven't read this book as of yet but plan to based on some comments from friends / associates.  I am writing this review since it fits in nicely for material in the December 2002 Newsletter, which is dedicated to helping people improve their performance (financially, personally and physically) in the year 2003.  

However, I have read Mr. Prechter's comments over the years and I can honestly say that eventually, if you say "CRASH!" long enough you will eventually be right.  Remember the story about the boy who cried wolf?  Well, not many people believed Prechter until it was too late.  VERY few people listened to him anymore.  Ravi Batra's "Crash of the Millenium" and James Dale Davidson's "The Sovereign Individual" are just a few of the books/people that were telling us to expect a U.S. economic / financial market collapse throughout the '90s (see: "Blood in the Streets" and "The Great Reckoning" by Davidson/Rees-Mogg, "The Great Depression of 1990" by Batra, and Prechter's newsletters/special reports from that period.

I personally fall somewhere between Prechter and Harry Dent.  Dent says that we should start a new boom because of baby boom spending within the next year or so.  He says that this trend should carry through to the year 2010 or so.  I think he is full of it as the Boomers haven't saved enough up to now and have to be getting scared.  At the same time, I don't think that Prechter is right about a full collapse that he often times writes about.

I continue to believe that the best investing book out there right now, as far as information about investing is concerned, is Deflation by A. Gary Shilling.  Shilling's graphs and research is EXTENSIVE and I believe he provides a fairly balanced, unemotional view of the next 5-10 years in the stock market.  

As most readers of my articles know, I believe that the stock market is in the toilet and there is very little that justifies today's crazy multiples based on the lackluster operating and net earnings from corporate America.  Having left Wall Street over a year ago I am amazed at how little attention the media, Wall Street & the Fed have given to Deflation and the possibility of continued economic weakness for years to come.  In my opinion the probability of a deflationary / recessionary scenario is still VERY HIGH.  This book helps you prepare for such tumultuous economic times but I just feel that Deflation is the best place to start.  After reading that book and absorbing the material I would encourage you to read this book.  I hope to have a full length review of it in early '03.

Robert Prechter is President of Elliott Wave International, which resides at elliottwave.com. EWI is a forecasting firm servicing institutional and private investors around the world, providing long-term as well as intraday analysis on stock markets, currencies, interest rates, commodities, and social trends. Since 1978, Prechter has published ten financial books, which have been translated into as many as a dozen languages. Every month, he writes thoughtful market commentary in The Elliott Wave Theorist. He is currently developing a new Web site dedicated to the elucidation of what he terms socionomics, the new science of social prediction. Prechter attended Yale University on a full scholarship and graduated in 1971 with a degree in psychology. He began his career as a Technical Market Specialist with the Merrill Lynch Market Analysis Department in New York City.