Better information = a Better Business person - Get your daily dose here about the economy and events shaping business.

4/10/03 - More Layoffs are coming 

http://www.brtable.org/index.cfm

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Executives at top U.S. companies expect a weaker economic performance this year than last, and many believe they will need to reduce payrolls over the next six months, a survey released on Thursday showed.

A survey by the Business Roundtable, whose member companies have a combined work force of 10 million and $3.7 trillion in revenues, said executives expect U.S. gross domestic product to advance just 2.2 percent this year, a bit less than the sluggish 2.4 percent gain registered in 2002.

In addition, only 9 percent expect to hire new workers, while 45 percent expect to let workers go.

"What we're seeing is a continuing trend of a weakening economy," Business Roundtable Chairman John Dillon, chairman and CEO at International Paper, told reporters on a conference call. "This economy continues to operate well below its potential and continues to be of serious concern to us."

To read the roundtable's entire report click on the link at the top.

4/9/03 - Bond Yields Will Continue to Fall This Year - Just My Opinion

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001007&sid=aiQeUYK6Ni4M&refer=rates

New York, April 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries rose after a survey showed analysts cut their 2003 economic growth forecast, damping expectations among investors that an allied victory in the war against Iraq will help boost the economy.  "The bond rally will end someday, but it's not going to be soon,'' said Christopher Sullivan, who helps manage $2 billion in fixed-income assets at the United Nations Federal Credit Union. ``What we have beyond Iraq is an economy with a weak labor market, low consumer confidence and poor earnings' prospects.''

``The economy is not really going to recover much after the war,'' said Ian Morris, chief U.S. economist at HSBC Securities Inc., one of 22 firms that trade with the central bank. Stagnating stocks the likelihood the Fed will cut interest rates will drive the 10-year note yield down to 3.25 percent by yearend. Morris said. He expects the central bank to lower its 1.25 percent overnight lending target to 0.75 percent by midyear.

Fed Alternatives

Fed funds futures, a gauge of expectations for the average overnight rate in a particular month, shows traders see about a 53 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's May 6 meeting, based on the May contract's 1.145 percent yield. The odds are down from 80 percent last week.

An alternative to cutting short-term rates is to lower long- term rates by buying long-term Treasury bonds, the Wall Street Journal said in a news analysis.

"At this point, another 25 basis-point cut would benefit just a handful of institutions,'' said the UN's Sullivan. The central bank ``could be more effective by buying'' 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, ``which would push rates down and spur another wave of mortgage refinancings,'' he said.

4/8/03 - S&P 500 - Ready to Fall?

The upwards trend line from the lows established this March was recently broken.  This is typically an ominous sign of a pending decline.  If the S&P 500 cracks 843 (one of the red lines is at that price) look for a retest of the previous lows in March.  That is what what the charts are saying, based on technical analysis.  We closed at 865 today. Just something to watch on occasion and to pass the time...

Source: RaptorGroupResearch.com

4/6/03 - The Search for Returns:  The global speculative-grade corporate bond default rate fell to 6.9% in March, from 7.7% in February, the twelfth monthly decline since the default rate peaked in January 2002, Moody’s Investors Service reported today. Over the first quarter 2003, the Global bond default rate tumbled to 6.9%, from 8.3% at the quarter’s beginning. The drop of 1.4% represents the largest one-month decline since the second quarter 1992.  Source: PrudentBear.com

4/6/03 - Mortgage Industry:  The temporary spike in mortgage rates was surely responsible for the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly refi index dropping 20% to the lowest level in five weeks (up 410% y-o-y).  The Purchase application index declined 5% for the week, while remaining 4% above the year ago level.  Total first-quarter mortgage refinancing surpassed the previous record established during the fourth-quarter by a notable 31% (from Moody’s John Lonski).  Recalling that record fourth-quarter annualized Home Mortgage debt growth of $855 billion was 60% greater than 2001’s annual record of $531 billion, it appears certain that first-quarter mortgage lending will be another one for the history books.    Since I work in the mortgage industry I can attest to numbers in the below range.  I can't comment about Countrywide Financial Corporation or LandSafe Inc. financial results but volumes were definitely strong and we consistently grow at or above market rates based on independent data over the last five years.  Source: PrudentBear.com

4/5/03